The Real Cost of "One Big Beautiful Bill": Washington's $4 Trillion Stimulus Mirage

The Senate just greenlit Trump’s so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill" in a razor's-edge 51-50 vote, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie. It reads like a macro strategist's horror novel: $3.3 trillion in direct red ink, a $5 trillion debt ceiling hike, a healthcare gutting that will remove nearly 12 million from Medicaid, and corporate handouts dressed as "investment certainty."

Welcome to 2025's fiscal carnival, where the clowns run the show.

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Wall Street Cheers, Silicon Valley Panics

Trump’s resurrection of the 2017 tax cuts is a windfall for corporate America, with permanent bonus depreciation, revived R&D deductions, and a lock-in of the 20% passthrough deduction. This is Reaganomics on steroids, with none of the fiscal discipline. The Business Roundtable calls it "pro-growth." Translation: more stock buybacks, higher executive comp, and a longer runway for zombie firms.

But not everyone is toasting. Elon Musk, former czar of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), torched the bill, calling it a "mockery" as clean energy subsidies are gutted and fossil fuels get a second wind. EV tax credits vanish September 30. A coal subsidy sneaks in. And a bizarre excise tax on Chinese-linked solar projects was only pulled at the last minute.

Musk didn't stop at rhetoric. He’s now promising primary challenges against GOP incumbents who backed the bill. Yes, we’re back to feudal-era politics, Silicon Valley edition.

The Hidden Time Bomb: Fiscal Sleight of Hand

Using a "current policy baseline," Republicans argue extending tax cuts doesn't cost anything. The Congressional Budget Office disagrees: $4.2 trillion in new debt under actual law. This is Washington's favorite party trick—change the measuring stick and claim you're shrinking.

It gets better:

• $40,000 SALT deduction expansion (read: blue state bailout)

• Elimination of the Medicaid provider tax, costing billions

• Scrapping a $100 billion-plus "revenge tax" on foreign income

Every last-minute change seems engineered to appease someone, somewhere, at the cost of structural solvency.

Inflationary Fuel Meets Rate Cut Delusions

Trump wants the Fed to slash rates to 1%. Meanwhile, his tariff regime is pushing inflation back toward 3.5%. Powell is holding at 4.25%, and a shadow Fed chair may be named before Powell's term ends. We’re entering uncharted territory: politicized monetary policy meets bond market skepticism. The yield curve is already whispering that something's not right.

Here's One Way to Play This Theme

In a market distorted by government largesse and political favoritism, disciplined equity selection is more vital than ever. Daly Asset Management's Active Growth Fund is a rare bird: hand-selected U.S. listed preferred and common stocks trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. Think real margin of safety in a market chasing unicorns.

Top allocations include:

• GM (12%) – Legacy industrials with EV upside

• FSLR (11%) – Solar exposure minus the ESG baggage

• AMZN, NVDA, GOOG (11% each) – Tech with real earnings

• ZIM, PDD, APO – Global trade and private equity angles

This isn’t passive beta. It’s active conviction in a sea of policy-induced chaos.

If the macro view says volatility is the new norm, positioning in companies that offer value and asymmetry is the only logical move.

Bottom Line

The bill isn't just big. It's structurally unsound, politically corrosive, and fiscally delusional. But markets will play along—until they don't. When that turn comes, you’ll want to be aligned with assets that understand the game beneath the game.

Stay sharp,

Analyzed Investing