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Big investors are buying this “unlisted” stock

When the founder who sold his last company to Zillow for $120M starts a new venture, people notice. That’s why the same VCs who backed Uber, Venmo, and eBay also invested in Pacaso.

Disrupting the real estate industry once again, Pacaso’s streamlined platform offers co-ownership of premier properties, revamping the $1.3T vacation home market.

And it works. By handing keys to 2,000+ happy homeowners, Pacaso has already made $110M+ in gross profits in their operating history.

Now, after 41% YoY gross profit growth last year alone, they recently reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.

Invest for $2.90/Share

_{Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.}

The S&P just hit another record.

Corporate earnings are rebounding.

And yet—hedge funds aren’t chasing. Retail’s not chasing. Even the buybacks have cooled.

You don’t need a tin hat to sense something’s off. You just need to look at the data. Let’s dissect the Yahoo Finance Chartbook and show you what they won’t.

1. The Rally That No One Believes

It’s one of the strongest V-shaped earnings rebounds since COVID, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. Yet positioning? Flatlined. Goldman’s sentiment index clocks in at zero. Hedge funds, mutual funds, and retail? All neutral.

This isn’t a melt-up. It’s a melt-until-someone-flinches.

And Big Tech—supposedly the poster child of this “bubble”—isn’t even leading in excess valuation. Barclays notes their forward P/E is actually lower than it was in January. Earnings have improved. Prices haven’t kept up. That’s not froth. That’s underpricing.

The rally isn’t fake. It’s just early. The buyers haven’t shown up yet. When they do, you’ll want to already be on the train.

2. Tariffflation and a Silent Recession

While Powell pontificates and Trump tweets about firing him, tariffs are quietly torquing the economy.

A quarter of last month’s inflation spike can be traced to new duties—on appliances, consumer goods, tech imports. And the labor market? Weakening from the inside. Immigration crackdowns have cut the foreign-born workforce by over 1 million in just a few months. That’s structural labor shrinkage in real time.

What happens when wages rise while productivity falls? Margins get crushed. And then come the layoffs.

Wall Street still thinks the Fed will cut this year. But Goldman and BofA are already walking that back. Tariffs are inflationary. Immigration policy is contractionary. It’s stagflation, not overheating—and the Fed doesn’t have the tools to fix it.

3. Passive Investing is a Powder Keg

Let’s call it: passive is the next source of systemic risk.

Campbell Harvey nails it—index investing has decoupled from price discovery. Every dollar poured into S&P trackers just buys more of the most expensive names. The S&P 500 is now more top-heavy than any time in history. Nvidia alone is nearly the size of the entire healthcare sector.

That’s not diversification. That’s a Jenga tower.

And when volatility spikes? Passive flows go out the same way they came in—together, and fast. You don’t want to be left holding what everyone else was overexposed to.

4. The Global Rotation Is Finally Real

International equities have outperformed U.S. stocks by over 1,200bps YTD. That’s not noise—it’s rotation. The DAX, Nikkei, and Hang Seng are all gaining steam, and for once, it’s not just because they’re “cheap.”

Earnings growth in Europe and EM is catching up. The dollar is weakening. And the geopolitical tailwinds—from tariffs to monetary divergence—are pushing capital overseas.

If you’re still 95% U.S.-domiciled, you’re not diversified. You’re deluded.

5. The Fed Is No Longer Driving

The Powell narrative is played out. Even if he stays, his influence is fading.

Long-term yields have held steady while the dollar collapsed. That’s not monetary policy. That’s lost confidence.

Foreign investors are quietly exiting Treasuries. And with the U.S. set to run a multi-trillion-dollar deficit this year, that exit isn’t just a problem—it’s a fire hazard.

The Fed might want to cut. But the bond market is saying: not yet. Not with sticky inflation, labor dislocation, and a fiscal dumpster fire on the horizon.

Smart Money Reads the Terrain

The world isn’t ending. But the rules have changed.

• Earnings are strong. Positioning is weak.

• Inflation isn’t monetary—it’s political.

• Passive flows are breaking the market.

• Global capital is rotating—for real.

• And the Fed’s no longer your safety net.

If you’re still allocating based on the last decade, you’re driving in reverse.

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Until next time,

Analyzed Investing — Facts first. Narratives later.

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. The opinions expressed are those of the author and may not reflect the views of any affiliated entities. All investments carry risk, including the risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.